Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
