How The Unusual Season Redefined the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.
However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other elite coaches.
Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5
Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.
The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.
Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal year!
Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.
The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.
After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record
Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.
Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.
Still
